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Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Where are the true "Baby-Boomer Buyers"?

I have attempted to write this update several times over the past two weeks. Every time I sit down to knock it out, a new wrinkle appears on the horizon. The original and continuing question is “Where are the True Baby-Boomer Buyers”? I can say take a look in the mirror, there is no truer measure of this market then ourselves. We are the buyers, what ever it is that keeps up from buying is the issue at hand. So if you are asking the question, you already have the answer. Sit down look in the mirror and ask yourself “why am I not building wealth in this “Buyers Market”, be honest with yourself and you will have the answer.
This is more to consider when asking the question, this is how I see the evolution of the real estate market along the Emerald Coast as it seems to be unraveling.
 Interest rates remain strong and it seems that they are about to go lower.
 4th quarter 2006 prices flattening/bottoming out, possibly adjusting 2-5% more until the end of January 2007
 4th quarter of 2006 promising to be the best selling/buying market of the year
 4th quarter 2006 to have the highest numbers of winners, motivated sellers that sold and closed and buyers that bought at the bottom of the market by finding the motivated sellers.
 Buyers we have been talking with all year have been showing up just like they said they would, a little at a time and writing multiple offers.
 Sellers have been more willing to negotiate because it's been a while since they've had rental income from their properties and it will be while until they again see income.
 1st quarter 2007 will have more buyers on the market, still disproportionate to sellers, but the best valued properties will see more offers and become less negotiable.
 1st quarter 2007 sales will be significantly higher than any quarter of 2006, condo sales showing the greatest improvement over 2006.
 2nd quarter 2007 will steadily increase until the end of June and we will see the popularity of condo sales migrate to home sales during this quarter.
 In each of the cases above;
o We will not see the kind of buying or selling activity of 2004 & 2005, (we will not see that kind of activity again in our lifetimes).
o The first in will be the biggest winners; the first to drop their prices, the first to write the best offers, the first to close will experience the best values.
o Last in will not experience their greatest opportunity; the sellers who waits too long to drop their prices, the buyers who waited too long to write offers will experience the same effects that those that waited to sell in late 2005 experienced, too late to be a winner. A lot of sellers who did not believe in the appreciation of 2004 /2005 waited too long to believe it was a dream come true. When they finally got in the game it was too late the tide had begun to turn. Those are the over priced properties we have been looking at all year. Now those sellers do not want to wake up, they continue to wait for the dream to again come true.
o Remember in real estate profit is in determined on the buy not on the sell.
 Appreciation will remain aloof until later in 2007, what we are buying today is equity.
Thought I should share.

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